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印度電動兩輪車市場潛力巨大

印度電動兩輪車市場潛力巨大

Biman Mukherji 2021年09月13日
印度只有12%的人口擁有一輛兩輪車,這意味著巨大商機。

印度流行兩輪車。該國是全球最大的摩托車、踏板車和助力自行車市場,兩輪車約占其國內機動車總銷售額的80%。去年,印度的兩輪車銷量達到1500萬輛,超過了其他任何國家。

而且該市場仍然有巨大的成長空間:印度只有12%的人口擁有一輛兩輪車。巴維什·阿加瓦爾在2010年年底創建了印度領先的叫車服務平臺Ola。他看到了兩輪車市場的巨大商機,但同時也看到了一個潛在問題。

如果印度未來數以百萬計的兩輪車司機購買汽油動力車,印度城市必定會受到霧霾的困擾,而且有些已經是全世界污染最嚴重的城市。阿加瓦爾稱:“我們決不能讓這種事情發生。所以推出電動兩輪車不再是一種選擇,而是變得至關重要。”

因此成立十年的Ola正在印度南部泰米爾納德邦的克里斯赫納吉里市興建全球最大的電動兩輪車工廠。工廠位于班加羅爾東南部,距班加羅爾大約兩個小時的車程。這家工廠隸屬于公司2017年新成立的業務部門Ola Electric。

如果這家龐大的工廠開足馬力運營,每年就可以生產1000萬輛兩輪車,占全球總產量的15%。工廠一期即將完工,年產能為200萬輛;在8月15日生產出了第一批電動踏板車。公司計劃從9月8日開始發售。

阿加瓦爾的目標不只是印度市場。Ola Electric計劃將電動兩輪車賣到歐洲、東南亞等市場。35歲的創業者阿加瓦爾告訴《財富》雜志:“我們將在印度生產,產品銷往世界各地。”

有十多家印度廠商加入了生產電動兩輪車的競賽。Ola的其他主要競爭對手包括Ampere Vehicles、Ather Energy、Bajaj Auto、Hero Electric和Okinawa Autotech等。到目前為止,沒有一家公司能夠占據明顯的領先優勢。雖然在兩輪車市場,電動兩輪車依舊是一個小眾市場,但分析師預計該市場有望大幅增長。

據印度電動汽車制造商行業組織電動汽車制造商協會(Society of Manufacturers of Electric Vehicles)統計,在截至2021年3月的財年,印度電動兩輪車的總銷量為143837輛。

這在印度兩輪車總銷量中僅占一小部分,其中約有三分之一是踏板車。

但分析師預測,得益于政府慷慨的激勵措施和補貼,未來幾年,電動兩輪車市場將大幅增長。6月,印度聯邦政府將電動兩輪車補貼提高到每千瓦時電池容量15000盧比,比之前的補貼水平提高了50%。政府還將對電動兩輪車制造商的財務激勵上限從之前的車輛成本的20%提高到40%。

包括古吉拉特邦、拉賈斯坦邦和馬哈拉施特拉邦在內的許多邦的政府都宣布增加補貼。

倫敦信息服務提供商IHS Markit的動力系統與合規預測副總監蘇拉杰·高希表示,未來預計會有更多邦宣布增加對電動兩輪車的補貼。他預測,該領域會迎來“現象級”增長。

Ola Electric稱,其使命是在未來四年內淘汰汽油驅動的兩輪車。

這是一個雄心勃勃的目標!為了實現這個目標,公司必須為客戶提供更有吸引力的性價比。Ola生產的首款電動踏板車定價為1369美元和1780美元。古吉拉特邦對電動踏板車的補貼最高。在該地區,扣除補貼之后,購買一輛Ola踏板車的成本只有1064美元。

這相當于一款高檔汽油驅動踏板車的價格,比Ola的競爭對手提供的規格接近的電動踏板車至少便宜15%至20%。

Ola的高端品牌S1 Pro踏板車最高時速可以達到115公里,一次充電可行駛181公里。

分析師表示,這款產品的行駛里程和速度足以滿足城市通勤者的需求。每天城市通勤的距離通常不超過30公里至40公里。

為了吸引城市通勤者,Ola踏板車還有地圖導航、遙控鎖車和內置音響等功能。

但Ola將要與Hero MotoCorp等老牌制造商激烈競爭。Hero MotoCorp是過去二十年全世界最大的兩輪車廠商,并計劃于明年年初推出新款電動兩輪車。Ola還必須面對新廠商的挑戰,例如位于班加羅爾的Ather Energy公司。Hero MotoCorp在該公司占有35%的股份。(Hero MotoCorp原名Hero Honda,是一家獨立的公司,與Hero Electric之間是競爭的關系。)

IHS Markit的高希表示,Ola Electric“引起了轟動,其定價也足夠大膽,但產品上市和為印度客戶帶來適當的價值,又是另一碼事。”

對于Ola而言,邀請消費者檢驗其產品的價值更有挑戰性,因為與Hero或Bajaj等成熟的廠商不同,Ola沒有全國經銷商網絡,無法讓消費者用腳來檢查踏板車的輪胎,或者進行試駕。Ola希望通過在線策略銷售其踏板車,支持客戶通過智能手機或計算機預約試駕,并安排Ola銷售人員把踏板車送到客戶家門口。該公司還會在特定地點設立實物“體驗中心”。

Ola面臨的另外一項挑戰是印度的充電站嚴重不足。Ola計劃在電動踏板車開始銷售后一年內,在100個印度城市設立5000個充電點。阿加瓦爾曾經承諾在400個城市建設10萬個充電點,形成一個“Ola超級充電樁網絡”,這將是全球覆蓋范圍最廣、最密集的兩輪車充電網絡。Ola表示其充電站僅供Ola踏板車使用。

阿加瓦爾指出,電動汽車制造商必須自己建造充電基礎設施,來滿足他們的需求。他告訴《財富》雜志:“我并不認為這是政府的工作。”

Ola高管表示,其充電樁可以在18分鐘內充滿一半電量。消費者還能夠使用踏板車附帶的750瓦便攜式充電器進行充電,在家或辦公室就可以輕松安裝。該公司表示,便攜式充電器完成充電需要約六個小時。

安永(EY)的汽車業務合伙人索姆·卡普爾稱:“最大的問題是,有多少[人]能夠在家里有一個專門的充電設施。”

印度的電動汽車廠商因為供應鏈問題而陷入混亂。該行業主要依賴從中國進口電池組和動力電池等零部件。

Ola表示將從韓國進口燃料電池,并在泰米爾納德邦的綜合未來工廠內自行生產電動踏板車的電池組和發動機等核心組件。阿加瓦爾稱,公司將在兩年內把電池生產線引入印度。

對印度的電動兩輪車制造商來說,前方的道路可能充滿了障礙和陷阱。Ola只有成功度過了初期的難關之后,才可以開始飛速發展。

安永的卡普爾說:“只要[電動兩輪車]的總擁有成本低于常規燃料驅動的車輛,該市場就會成倍增長。只是我們不確定這一刻會在什么時候來臨,這是一個非常關鍵的問題。”(財富中文網)

譯者:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

印度流行兩輪車。該國是全球最大的摩托車、踏板車和助力自行車市場,兩輪車約占其國內機動車總銷售額的80%。去年,印度的兩輪車銷量達到1500萬輛,超過了其他任何國家。

而且該市場仍然有巨大的成長空間:印度只有12%的人口擁有一輛兩輪車。巴維什·阿加瓦爾在2010年年底創建了印度領先的叫車服務平臺Ola。他看到了兩輪車市場的巨大商機,但同時也看到了一個潛在問題。

如果印度未來數以百萬計的兩輪車司機購買汽油動力車,印度城市必定會受到霧霾的困擾,而且有些已經是全世界污染最嚴重的城市。阿加瓦爾稱:“我們決不能讓這種事情發生。所以推出電動兩輪車不再是一種選擇,而是變得至關重要。”

因此成立十年的Ola正在印度南部泰米爾納德邦的克里斯赫納吉里市興建全球最大的電動兩輪車工廠。工廠位于班加羅爾東南部,距班加羅爾大約兩個小時的車程。這家工廠隸屬于公司2017年新成立的業務部門Ola Electric。

如果這家龐大的工廠開足馬力運營,每年就可以生產1000萬輛兩輪車,占全球總產量的15%。工廠一期即將完工,年產能為200萬輛;在8月15日生產出了第一批電動踏板車。公司計劃從9月8日開始發售。

阿加瓦爾的目標不只是印度市場。Ola Electric計劃將電動兩輪車賣到歐洲、東南亞等市場。35歲的創業者阿加瓦爾告訴《財富》雜志:“我們將在印度生產,產品銷往世界各地。”

有十多家印度廠商加入了生產電動兩輪車的競賽。Ola的其他主要競爭對手包括Ampere Vehicles、Ather Energy、Bajaj Auto、Hero Electric和Okinawa Autotech等。到目前為止,沒有一家公司能夠占據明顯的領先優勢。雖然在兩輪車市場,電動兩輪車依舊是一個小眾市場,但分析師預計該市場有望大幅增長。

據印度電動汽車制造商行業組織電動汽車制造商協會(Society of Manufacturers of Electric Vehicles)統計,在截至2021年3月的財年,印度電動兩輪車的總銷量為143837輛。

這在印度兩輪車總銷量中僅占一小部分,其中約有三分之一是踏板車。

但分析師預測,得益于政府慷慨的激勵措施和補貼,未來幾年,電動兩輪車市場將大幅增長。6月,印度聯邦政府將電動兩輪車補貼提高到每千瓦時電池容量15000盧比,比之前的補貼水平提高了50%。政府還將對電動兩輪車制造商的財務激勵上限從之前的車輛成本的20%提高到40%。

包括古吉拉特邦、拉賈斯坦邦和馬哈拉施特拉邦在內的許多邦的政府都宣布增加補貼。

倫敦信息服務提供商IHS Markit的動力系統與合規預測副總監蘇拉杰·高希表示,未來預計會有更多邦宣布增加對電動兩輪車的補貼。他預測,該領域會迎來“現象級”增長。

Ola Electric稱,其使命是在未來四年內淘汰汽油驅動的兩輪車。

這是一個雄心勃勃的目標!為了實現這個目標,公司必須為客戶提供更有吸引力的性價比。Ola生產的首款電動踏板車定價為1369美元和1780美元。古吉拉特邦對電動踏板車的補貼最高。在該地區,扣除補貼之后,購買一輛Ola踏板車的成本只有1064美元。

這相當于一款高檔汽油驅動踏板車的價格,比Ola的競爭對手提供的規格接近的電動踏板車至少便宜15%至20%。

Ola的高端品牌S1 Pro踏板車最高時速可以達到115公里,一次充電可行駛181公里。

分析師表示,這款產品的行駛里程和速度足以滿足城市通勤者的需求。每天城市通勤的距離通常不超過30公里至40公里。

為了吸引城市通勤者,Ola踏板車還有地圖導航、遙控鎖車和內置音響等功能。

但Ola將要與Hero MotoCorp等老牌制造商激烈競爭。Hero MotoCorp是過去二十年全世界最大的兩輪車廠商,并計劃于明年年初推出新款電動兩輪車。Ola還必須面對新廠商的挑戰,例如位于班加羅爾的Ather Energy公司。Hero MotoCorp在該公司占有35%的股份。(Hero MotoCorp原名Hero Honda,是一家獨立的公司,與Hero Electric之間是競爭的關系。)

IHS Markit的高希表示,Ola Electric“引起了轟動,其定價也足夠大膽,但產品上市和為印度客戶帶來適當的價值,又是另一碼事。”

對于Ola而言,邀請消費者檢驗其產品的價值更有挑戰性,因為與Hero或Bajaj等成熟的廠商不同,Ola沒有全國經銷商網絡,無法讓消費者用腳來檢查踏板車的輪胎,或者進行試駕。Ola希望通過在線策略銷售其踏板車,支持客戶通過智能手機或計算機預約試駕,并安排Ola銷售人員把踏板車送到客戶家門口。該公司還會在特定地點設立實物“體驗中心”。

Ola面臨的另外一項挑戰是印度的充電站嚴重不足。Ola計劃在電動踏板車開始銷售后一年內,在100個印度城市設立5000個充電點。阿加瓦爾曾經承諾在400個城市建設10萬個充電點,形成一個“Ola超級充電樁網絡”,這將是全球覆蓋范圍最廣、最密集的兩輪車充電網絡。Ola表示其充電站僅供Ola踏板車使用。

阿加瓦爾指出,電動汽車制造商必須自己建造充電基礎設施,來滿足他們的需求。他告訴《財富》雜志:“我并不認為這是政府的工作。”

Ola高管表示,其充電樁可以在18分鐘內充滿一半電量。消費者還能夠使用踏板車附帶的750瓦便攜式充電器進行充電,在家或辦公室就可以輕松安裝。該公司表示,便攜式充電器完成充電需要約六個小時。

安永(EY)的汽車業務合伙人索姆·卡普爾稱:“最大的問題是,有多少[人]能夠在家里有一個專門的充電設施。”

印度的電動汽車廠商因為供應鏈問題而陷入混亂。該行業主要依賴從中國進口電池組和動力電池等零部件。

Ola表示將從韓國進口燃料電池,并在泰米爾納德邦的綜合未來工廠內自行生產電動踏板車的電池組和發動機等核心組件。阿加瓦爾稱,公司將在兩年內把電池生產線引入印度。

對印度的電動兩輪車制造商來說,前方的道路可能充滿了障礙和陷阱。Ola只有成功度過了初期的難關之后,才可以開始飛速發展。

安永的卡普爾說:“只要[電動兩輪車]的總擁有成本低于常規燃料驅動的車輛,該市場就會成倍增長。只是我們不確定這一刻會在什么時候來臨,這是一個非常關鍵的問題。”(財富中文網)

譯者:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

India rides on two wheels. The country is the world’s largest market for motorcycles, scooters, and mopeds, which account for 80% of its total vehicle sales. Last year, 15 million two-wheelers were sold in India, more than in any other country in the world.

And yet the market has ample room for further growth: Only 12% of India’s population owns a two-wheeler. Bhavish Aggarwal, who founded India’s leading ride-sharing platform, Ola, at the end of 2010, sees that as an enormous business opportunity—but one with a catch.

If India’s millions of future two-wheel drivers buy gas-powered vehicles, the nation’s cities—already some of the most polluted in the world—will be choked with smog. “We simply cannot allow that to happen,” Aggarwal declares. “So moving to electric vehicles is no longer optional, it’s crucial.”

Thus, a decade after its founding, Ola is now building the world’s largest electric two-wheeler factory in Krishnagiri, a city in India’s southern Tamil Nadu state, about a two-hour drive southeast from Bangalore. The factory is a project under Ola Electric, a new company group launched in 2017.

When the sprawling factory is fully operational, it will be able to produce 10 million two-wheelers a year—15% of the world’s total production. The first phase of the factory, with an annual capacity of 2 million, is near completion; the first batch of electric scooters rolled out on Aug. 15. The company plans to open sales from Sept. 8.

Aggarwal is looking beyond the Indian market. Ola Electric plans to sell electric two-wheelers in Europe, Southeast Asia, and elsewhere. “We will build in India and make for the world,” the 35-year-old entrepreneur told Fortune.

More than a dozen Indian manufacturers have joined Ola in the race to build electric two-wheelers. Among the other leading contenders: Ampere Vehicles, Ather Energy, Bajaj Auto, Hero Electric, and Okinawa Autotech. So far, no company has been able to establish a clear lead. The segment remains a tiny niche of the overall market, but analysts say it is poised for dramatic growth.

In the financial year that ended March 2021, the total number of electric two-wheelers sold in India was 143,837, according to the Society of Manufacturers of Electric Vehicles, an industry association representing India’s EV makers.

That’s a fraction of India’s total two-wheeler sales, of which about a third were scooters.

Yet analysts expect robust growth over the next several years thanks to generous government incentives and subsidies. In June, India’s federal government raised its subsidy on electric two-wheelers to 15,000 rupees per kilowatt-hour of battery capacity, a 50% increase over the previous subsidy. The government has also raised the cap on financial incentives for electric two-wheeler makers to 40% of the cost of the vehicle, up from 20% earlier.

The governments of many states, including Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Maharashtra, have announced additional subsidies.

Suraj Ghosh, associate director for powertrain and compliance forecasts at IHS Markit, a London-based information services provider, says he expects many more states to announce subsidies for electric two-wheelers over the next several years. The segment’s growth, he predicts, will be “phenomenal.”

Ola Electric says its mission is to make gasoline-powered two-wheelers obsolete within the next four years.

It’s an ambitious goal. To achieve it, the company must offer customers a superior combination of price and performance. Ola’s first electric scooter models have been priced at $1,369 and $1,780. In Gujarat, which offers the most generous sweeteners for electric scooters, the after-subsidy cost of buying an Ola scooter falls to as low as $1,064.

That’s comparable to the price of a top-end gasoline-powered scooter and at least 15% to 20% cheaper than electric scooters with similar specifications offered by Ola’s rivals.

Ola’s top-of-the-line S1 Pro scooter boasts a maximum speed of 115 kilometers per hour and a range of up to 181 kilometers on a single full charge.

That range and speed should be sufficient for urban commuters who typically commute no more than 30 to 40 kilometers a day, according to analysts.

Ola scooters also come with features such as navigation maps, keyless locking, and built-in speakers designed to appeal to urban commuters.

But Ola will face stiff competition from established manufacturers like Hero MotoCorp, which has been the world’s largest maker of two-wheelers for the past 20 years and plans to launch its first electric model early next year. Ola must also contend with emerging players such as Bangalore-based Ather Energy, in which Hero MotoCorp owns a 35% stake. (Hero MotoCorp, formerly Hero Honda, is a separate, rival company to Hero Electric.)

Ola Electric has “created a buzz, and the pricing also is adequately aggressive, but to get a product in the market and give the right value to the Indian customer is a different proposition,” said IHS Markit’s Ghosh.

Getting consumers to test that proposition will be all the more challenging given that Ola, unlike established manufacturers such as Hero or Bajaj, doesn’t have a nationwide network of dealerships where customers can kick the tires and take scooters for a test-drive. Ola hopes to sell its scooters with an online strategy, enabling customers to book a test-drive using their smartphone or computer and arrange for an Ola salesman to bring a scooter right to their doorstep. The company will also have physical “experience centers” at select locations.

Another challenge for Ola will be India’s dearth of electric charging stations. Ola plans to install 5,000 charging points in 100 Indian cities within its first year of sales. Aggarwal has vowed to build an “Ola Hypercharger Network” with more than 100,000 charging points across 400 cities, which would make it the widest and densest two-wheeler charging network in the world. Ola says its charging stations will only be accessible to Ola scooters.

Electric vehicle makers will simply have to make the charging infrastructure they want, says Aggarwal. “I don’t think it’s the government’s job,” he tells Fortune.

Ola executives say chargers at its stations will be capable of delivering a half charge in 18 minutes. Consumers also will be able to recharge with a 750W portable charger that comes with the scooter and can be easily installed at home or at the office. The portable chargers can provide a full charge in about six hours, according to the company.

“How many [people] will have a dedicated charging facility at home is the single biggest challenge,” says Som Kapoor, partner for automotives at EY.

India’s electric vehicle manufacturers have been bedeviled by supply-chain problems. The sector is hugely dependent on imports, mostly from China, for parts such as battery packs and power cells.

Ola says it will import fuel cells from South Korea, but manufacture its own battery pack and motor, and produce the core components for its electric scooters at the company’s integrated Future Factory in Tamil Nadu. Aggarwal says the company will bring cell manufacturing to India within two years.

For India’s electric two-wheeler manufacturers, the road ahead may be strewn with rocks and potholes. Ola will have to negotiate those initial bumps successfully before it hits cruising speed.

“Once the total cost of ownership [of an electric two-wheeler] becomes lower than a vehicle with a conventional fuel engine, then there will be a geometrical progression,” says EY’s Kapoor. “The only thing is we don’t know when that will happen. It’s probably a billion-dollar question.”

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